Budget expenditures for 2022 will be adjusted

Assistant to President Maxim Oreshkin called for an adjustment of the draft budget for 2022-2024, which was approved by the government on September 21st. A federal official told Vedomosti about it. The information was confirmed by a source close to the presidential administration and a person familiar with the situation. Oreshkin made his remarks at a meeting with the president last week.

Oreshkin’s claims were mainly about next year’s budget expenditures – he proposed an increase in a large amount – amounting to hundreds of billions of rubles. Now the document is coming to an end and it is likely that by 2022 the government’s total spending will grow. But, according to a source close to the government, there are no plans to change the main features at this time. At the same time, at least the funds will be distributed significantly, while maintaining the current design of the basic parameters of the 2022 budget. Now, next year’s spending is projected at the rate of 23.6 trillion rubles, and the budget has been made with a surplus of 1.4 trillion. Once the document has been sent to the State Duma, it is not possible to change the main features of the budget: the level of revenue, expenditure and surplus (or deficit).

In a draft budget with a surplus of 1.4 trillion rubles, spending for 2022 is set at a lower level than in 2021, which is not entirely logical, as the nominal volume of GDP will grow quite significantly, the interlocutor explained. . However, in order to raise budget spending to this level, it may be necessary to continue the practice of moving away from the budget rule adopted as an anti-crisis measure in 2020. These proposals can be made within the package of documents and invoices, he added.

One of Vedomosti’s sources, close to the government, said that despite the draft budget for 2022-2024. there are debatable points, it is unlikely to reach an increase in the total amount of expenses. The government believes it will limit itself to redistributing funds in a variety of directions.

A spokesman for the Ministry of Finance, in response to a query from Vedomosti, said that “traditionally, at the government site, the draft federal budget is being finalized to ensure that all programs and activities are properly accounted for – a common practice.” “From a budget policy perspective, all priorities, goals and objectives have already been established and reflected in the bill,” he said. A government official did not respond to a request. Presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov also did not comment on Vedomosti’s questions.

Earlier, the Ministry of Economy proposed to temporarily adjust the adjustments to the budget rule specifically made for the pandemic period to increase next year’s budget expenditures, Vedomosti reported in August. In particular, the department considered the monitoring of the primary structural deficit – an indicator that determines the maximum amount of budget expenditures – at an increased level. By 2021, its size had increased by 875 billion rubles. – From 585 million (this amount is set in the budget rule) to 1.46 trillion rubles. This maneuver made it possible to increase government spending by that amount, but it was planned to return the size of the primary structural deficit to its original values ​​from next year. Mine believed in 2022-2023. it is necessary to maintain it at the current level – at least 1.46 trillion rubles.

The size of the primary structural deficit is defined as the difference between the sum of oil and gas and the sum of basic oil and gas revenues (the price cut by oil sales this year is $ 43.3 per barrel of Ural barrels) and the total volume of federal budget expenditures. In addition to maintaining the maximum volume of expenditures at an increased level, the Ministry of Economy proposed to establish the basic revenues of the oil and gas budget for the period 2022-2023. in the current parameters – that is, to carry over to the next two years the current forecast of this indicator, which was set at the previous level of the OPEC + agreement (564 million tonnes).

Ministry of Finance in the Draft Budget Policy, Tax and Customs Tariff Policy Guidelines for 2022-2024. He focused on the uncertainty of global economic outlook. On the one hand, large-scale vaccines continue to stimulate growth along with the fiscal and monetary measures of governments and central banks, leading to higher inflation, the document says. On the other hand, there are still significant risks of a prolonged crisis if vaccinations are delayed, such as logistical difficulties, reluctance to vaccinate the population, or the ineffectiveness of vaccines due to the emergence of new strains. coronavirus. In this case, it will be necessary to extend the restrictive measures, which will lead to an increase in uncertainty, a cooling of consumer demand and a reduction in investment.

The radical rise in projected spending is technically impossible without adjusting the budget rule on marginal spending, said Dmitry Kulikov, director of the ACRA’s sovereign ratings and macroeconomic analysis team. Otherwise, relatively serious changes will be needed, such as improving the latest version of the macro forecast, implementing additional tax measures that will improve non-oil and gas revenue expectations, and so on. 2005–2020. In federal budget projects, revenues and balances were far more often underestimated than overestimated, the expert added. But this is not surprising, given that the accidental kidnapping has significantly higher costs for the authorities than the expected revenue at the end of the year, Kulikov explained.

The new draft budget is being carried out between 2022-2023. With a surplus of 1% of GDP, Alexander Bezdolny, a resident of the CSR Expert Club, said that the stability goals are higher than the development goals. He noted that the state of the global economy is not yet easy, and that the new wave of the epidemic is not possible. The risk lies in not understanding the effects of the 2020-2021 cuts, according to the expert. The Coronavirus epidemic could show the economic imbalances that have arisen in the global economy over the last decade with the onset of the “cheap money” era, Bezdolny continued. As an example, he mentioned the situation with the Chinese construction company Evergrande, which was on the verge of bankruptcy as a result of the pandemic. The budget is always a commitment, and a commitment between the so-called elites, said Vladimir Klimanov, director of the RANEPA Regional Policy Center. Under new conditions – coronaviruses, renewed government composition, the State Duma, accelerated inflation, etc. – the search for this commitment can be done on new principles. Therefore, it is possible to review both the basic structure and the basic parameters of the budget even before the State Duma is presented.

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